Value in Houston futures?

ppeter · Jul 19, 2003

Guys, I just took Houston to win the SB at bluegrass @ 750 to 1. ($40 to win $30k). I know that is bound to draw a lot of snickering but I could not resist that kind of value.

Houston is obviously improved given the tremendous amount of draft picks they have stockpiled the last two years. Carr has another year under his belt and Boselli is supposedly ready to play. Andre Johnson could be the ROY. Capers took the Panthers deep into the playoffs in year 3 of their expansion, hopefully he can repeat those results in year 2 of the Texans.

Houston is in a weak division. The Titans are really down this year due to age and free agent losses, Jax is rebuilding, Indy is probably the class but is still a question mark with Payton's obvious loss of confidence and the D still does not have personnel for Dungy's system. I think there is legit possiblity Houston could win the divison and automatically make the playoffs.

If that happens, I have all sorts of hedging possibilities at the above-mentioned payoff ratio.

Something to think about (and fantasize about) throughout the season.

[This message was edited by ppeter on July 19, 2003 at 08:11 PM.]

ppeter · Jul 19, 2003

FYI I also put a little on Houston @ 40:1 to win their divison

Oren1 · Jul 19, 2003

I read someone's opinion that their D over-performed last year, but besides that, I guess there's a chance. Not if they haven't improved their offensive line, though.

Oren1 · Jul 19, 2003

looks like they picked up 2 offensive linemen and 1 guard through free agency, and now have Fred Taylor's back-up, Stacy Mack, as their R.B., who averaged 4.4 ypc with 98 touches in 2002. 11 receptions, 79 yards, avg. 7.2.

The Guesser · Jul 19, 2003

I threw something on them to win this PATHETIC division as well. Losing Boselli is a killer, but 50-1(Pinnacle) mixed with this divison makes it something that wouldn't shock me. If you're gonna play these division odds, shop hard, beacuse I've seen Hous as low as 8-1, as high as 50-1.

winbet · Jul 19, 2003

Gambling,s all about odds, when bookies give ridiculous prices you have to take them regardless. Last year I took 250/1 Detroit for the NFC NORTH, but a few years back I took 250/1 San Deigo for the AFC WEST when they were 0-4. With thin depth & injuries in a 4 way race, anything can happen. Be alert to these prices after 3 or4 games.

raiders72001 · Jul 19, 2003

I'm another guy that donated a little on Hou to win their division. I liked the bet a lot more before Boseli retired.

ppeter · Jul 19, 2003

Hey, glad to see I am not alone. I thought I was going to take a lot of gas on this as most publications peg the Texans in the basement.

I was not aware Boselli retired, for the better I guess as the OL will have to realize no help is on the way and they can look for a quality replacement.

HacheMan · Jul 19, 2003

Guys, how does Bluegrass' odds for other teams compare to other books? Most I've seen anywhere else for Houston is 500-1. I would take that money and instead lay it on Saints (45-1) Carolina (80-1) or Jacksonville (100-1) Not as good of payoffs, but much more realistic than Houston.

raiders72001 · Jul 19, 2003

Pinnacle SB futures

10:00 AM 1 Atlanta Falcons +1800

2 Arizona Cardinals +20000

3 Baltimore Ravens +4000

4 Buffalo Bills +3600

5 Carolina Panthers +7500

6 Chicago Bears +6000

7 Cincinnati Bengals +20000

8 Cleveland Browns +3200

9 Dallas Cowboys +6000

10 Denver Broncos +2000

11 Detroit Lions +20000

12 Green Bay Packers +1550

13 Houston Texans +25000

14 Indianapolis Colts +2800

15 Jacksonville Jaguars +9000

16 Kansas City Chiefs +2600

17 Miami Dolphins +1300

18 Minnesota Vikings +3500

19 New England Patriots +3100

20 New Orleans Saints +5000

21 New York Giants +2600

22 New York Jets +1600

23 Oakland Raiders +1000

24 Pittsburgh Steelers +2000

25 Philadelphia Eagles +900

26 San Diego Chargers +4200

27 San Francisco 49ers +2000

28 Seattle Seahawks +5000

29 St Louis Rams +975

30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700

31 Tennessee Titans +1500

32 Washington Redskins +4000

ppeter · Jul 20, 2003

Bluegrass futures:ODDS TO WIN 2004 SUPERBOWL XXXVIII
Odds to Win
1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700
2 Philadelphia Eagles +800
3 New York Jets +1500
4 Oakland Raiders +1500
5 Green Bay Packers +1800
6 Pittsburgh Steelers +1600
7 St Louis Rams +1400
8 Atlanta Falcons +1400
9 San Fransisco 49ers +1500
10 Buffalo Bills +3800
11 Denver Broncos +2400
12 Indianapolis Colts +2600
13 Kansas City Chiefs +2800
14 Miami Dolphins +1700
15 New England Patriots +3800
16 Tennessee Titans +2100
17 New Orleans Saints +4000
18 New York Giants +3000
19 Baltimore Ravens +4500
20 Cleveland Browns +4000
21 Dallas Cowboys +8000
22 San Diego Chargers +5000
23 Washington Redskins +4800
24 Seattle Seahawks +6000
25 Chicago Bears +9000
26 Minnesota Vikings +4800
27 Jacksonville Jaguars +9900
28 Carolina Panthers +12500
29 Arizona Cardinals +17500
30 Cincinatti Bengals +25000
31 Detroit Lions +25000
32 Houston Texans +75000

ppeter · Jul 20, 2003

2004 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Odds to win
1 Oakland Raiders +500
2 Pittsburgh Steelers +450
3 NY Jets +550
4 Miami Dolphins +575
5 Tennessee Titans +850
6 Denver Broncos +800
7 New England Patriots +850
8 Indianapolis Colts +950
9 Kansas City Chiefs +950
10 Cleveland Browns +1250
11 San Diego Chargers +1800
12 Buffalo Bills +1200
13 Baltimore Ravens +1650
14 Jacksonville Jaguars +4500
15 Cincinnati Bengals +10000
16 Houston Texans +15500

* Note:

2004 AFC DIVISION ODDS
Odds to win the AFC East Division
1 New York Jets +170
2 Miami Dolphins +160
3 New England Patriots +250
4 Buffalo Bills +360

* Note:

Odds to win the AFC North Division
1 Pittsburgh Steelers +100
2 Cleveland Browns +200
3 Baltimore Ravens +360
4 Cincinnati Bengals +4000

* Note:

Odds to win the AFC South Division
1 Tennessee Titans +110
2 Indianapolis Colts +165
3 Jacksonville Jaguars +700
4 Houston Texans +4000

* Note:

Odds to win the AFC West Division
1 Oakland Raiders +180
2 Denver Broncos +210
3 Kansas City Chiefs +360
4 San Diego Chargers +350

* Note:

2004 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Odds to win
1 Philadelphia Eagles +400
2 Tampa Bay Buccs +350
3 St. Louis Rams +450
4 Atlanta Falcons +650
5 NY Giants +900
6 Green Bay Packers +600
7 San Francisco 49ers +800
8 New Orleans Saints +1500
9 Washington Redskins +1800
10 Dallas Cowboys +2100
11 Chicago Bears +2300
12 Minnesota Vikings +2000
13 Seattle Seahawks +2700
14 Carolina Panthers +3700
15 Detroit Lions +7500
16 Arizona Cardinals +10500

* Note:

2004 NFC DIVISION ODDS
Odds to win the NFC East Division
1 Philadelphia Eagles +100
2 New York Giants +260
3 Dallas Cowboys +525
4 Washington Redskins +600

* Note:

Odds to win the NFC North Division
1 Green Bay Packers -130
2 Minnesota Vikings +300
3 Chicago Bears +400
4 Detroit Lions +1400

* Note:

Odds to win the NFC South Division
1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -140
2 Atlanta Falcons +280
3 New Orleans Saints +500
4 Carolina Panthers +1000

* Note:

Odds to win the NFC West Division
1 San Francisco 49ers +100
2 St Louis Rams +150
3 Seattle Seahawks +800
4 Arizona Cardinals +3000

ppeter · Jul 20, 2003

I also took Atlanta to win their division. The only real competition is TB IMO, and they will are due for an "Anaheim Angels-like" championship season letdown.

The Guesser · Jul 20, 2003

Seattle at +800 to win the NFC West is outstanding value. Oly had that, but has since gone down to 6-1. Most places have them at 4 or 5-1.

SaintJoe57 · Jul 20, 2003

You are dead on with Seattle, also the Saints carry great value as well. Boy it amazes me to see so many on the Atlanta bandwagon. Hey even as a Saint fan I enjoy watching Vick play, but hey this is his sophmore year and I can't see the Falcons finishing better than third in that divison.

drhockey · Jul 26, 2003

Simply put... It's not going to happen why not give me the $40.00, and I'll put the money to good use, on an investment in beer.

Dr.

megladon3 · Jul 26, 2003

Pinnacle had Houston to win the AFC south at 125 to 1 about 6-8 weeks ago. I looked at it for weeks and passed on it. I really wish I'd put fifty bucks on it. Now at 50 to 1, it just doesn't do it for me and I love long shots. Good luck.

ProPlaya · Jul 27, 2003

I agree with DR Hockey, Houston has 0.00001% chance of winning the division but sometimes you never know. Look out for Chicago Bears with Kordell at 100-1. New revamped stadium, decent QB and same defense that went 13-3 2 years ago. I really think last years disater is all because of the QB situation and them playing 4.5 hours away from downtown Chicago in Champaign. I like MIA to win it all, I got 20-1. PPeter, where did you see MIA at 17-1??